Beat the Dealer

The first and still the best book on winning Blackjack. Thorpe pioneered the whole winning at Blackjack idea with this book - a FIRST must read!!

Beat the Dealer:

How to Play WINNING Blackjack

If your Blackjack playing is confined to a couple of trips to Vegas every year, these comments are not for you – don’t waste your time. But if you play at least once or twice a week and want a fair chance of winning a bit of money read on.

First - House Rules

If your Casino will not allow the following play then don’t play there!

1. Blackjack pays 3:2
2. Double down on any two cards
3. Split any pair
4. Re-split up to at least 4 hands
5. Double down after the split (DAS)
6. Surrender
7. 5 Decks
8. Insurance
9. Dealer stands on a hard 17

This is the minimum you should expect; sadly this means you will not be able to play in the State of Nevada – Nevada’s rules are just harsh and unconscionable.

Second - Basic Strategy

Learn the Basic Strategy – follow these rules

Pair Splitting:

1. Always split A’s and 8’s
2. Never split 5’s and 10’s
3. Split 9’s against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9. stand if the dealer has a 7 up. Say 9’s against 9’s except 7
4. Split 7’s against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Say 7’s against 7
5. Split 6’s against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Say 6’s against 6
6. Split 3’s against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Say 2’s and 3’s against 7
7. Split 2’s against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
8. Split 4’s against 5,6 if you can DAS otherwise double down on the 8

Soft Doubling:

1. A9 = 20 Always stand
2. A8 = 19 Always stand except if the dealer has 6 in which case double down
3. A7 = 18 Double down on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Stand on dealer’s 7 and 8 and hit 9, 10 and Ace.
4. A6 = 17 Double down on 3, 4, 5, 6 – Hit 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace
5. A5 = 16 Double down on 4, 5, 6 – Hit 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace
6. A4 = 15 Double down on 4, 5, 6 – Hit 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace
7. A3 = 14 Double down on 5, 6 – Hit 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace
8. A2 = 13 Double down on 5, 6 – Hit 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace

Hard Doubling:

1. Always Double down on 11
2. Always Double down on 10 except against 10 or Ace
3. Double down on 9 against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
4. Double down on 8 against 4, 5, 6

Hard Standing:

1. Stand on Hard 12 or more if the dealer has 16 or less – if the dealer has a 2 up hit if you have a hard 12 or hard 13
2. Do not hit a hard 17

Surrender:

1. Surrender a Hard 15 against 10 or A
2. Surrender a hard 16 against 9, 10, Ace
3. Surrender a hard 17 against Ace
4. Surrender a pair of 8’s against Ace

Insurance:

1. Never take insurance unless you can count.
2. If you have been counting and have identified a favourable play, insure a hard 20 – some say insure everything see more on Counting below.

Third - Counting:

Hi/Low True Count

Depending where you play, the deal will be one of the following – Hand held single deck dealt face down, 5-6 deck shoe dealt face up and Continuous shuffling machine dealt face up.

The objective of counting is to identify an Ace/10 rich deck which increases your chances of a Blackjack. Counting is counting anyone can do it and you don’t need a PhD. from MIT. Here are the basics – count +1 for every 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 dealt, count -1 for every Ace, King, Queen and 10 dealt and ignore 7, 8, 9.

Every serious player knows this, but many times they just can put it all together. Here are some tips:

1. Sit at first base, on the dealer’s left, next to the shoe – not third base.
2. Wait until the dealer deals each player a card, the dealer up card and a second card to each player.
3. Determine your play – see Basic Strategy above
4. You make your play and the dealer moves to the next player
5. Begin your count, your hand first, then the hand of each successive player
6. In your mind think “m” for minus, i.e. two 10’s is m2. Two 6’s would just be 2. So you move from m2 to m1 to even to 1 to 2
7. Don’t count each card - offset high and low cards – for example, if a hand contains a 10, 4 and 7 the 10 and 4 offset and the 7 is not counted and you move to the next hand – don’t say, “m1, 1, equals even, ignore 7”.
8. Since you are sitting next to the shoe eyeball the number of decks left and divide that number into the count - if there are 5 decks in the game and 4 decks remain in the shoe, divide the number of remaining decks into the count for the true count. For example, if the count is 8 and there are 4 decks left the Hi/Low True Count is 2.
9. Try not to move your lips

This is simple – anyone can do it but it takes time and practice. The best thing to do is go to your local Casino (Not in Nevada) and sit at a low limit table and “PRACTICE” – it should take a month of two a week sessions to be comfortable with the system.

Money Management - Betting

This is the most important aspect of gambling in general and of Blackjack in particular. If you cannot manage your money you will just lose – better to mail a check to the Casino and stay home and watch television.

1. What are the odds of winning at Blackjack? If you play at a Casino with the House Rules noted above and use strict Basic Strategy the odds of winning are approximately one half of 1% against you – House: 50.5% – You: 49.5% http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html
2. Counting shifts the odds in your favour, perhaps up to 1%, if you bet correctly - essentially your advantage is based upon the increased chances of a blackjack.
3. You need 25 times your minimum bet – if you play $10.00 per hand you should have a minimum stake of $250.00 to give yourself a fighting chance.
4. Bet the count – once you identify a favourable situation bet the count. Remember, if the count is 8 and the number of decks left is 4 the true count is 2 so bet 2 units, but make two bets, if possible – this is important - you are betting 2 units twice not 4 units. Since the odds are presumed to be slightly in your favour based upon the count the odds of winning one of the two hands is in your favour.
5. Once you have made your bet based upon a favourable situation you have to assume the remaining decks contain a higher percentage of Aces/10’s so, don’t hit a breaking hand and if the dealer has an Ace take insurance.

This style of play will give you a slight advantage perhaps 1%, it’s not a guarantee and the dealer has an equal chance of getting a blackjack. This is a game for grinders – you have to play frequently for the advantage to be meaningful and you have to live with “BAD” days – it just happens. Sometimes you can’t believe the cards will ever turn – they will.

One theory says if you have lost 75% to 80% of your stake and it’s getting close to your time to leave consider going all in if you can find a decent plus count – the reality is you are unlikely to come back from that far down so one last bet win or lose makes some sense, I guess.

In a favourable situation you have to get as much money on the table as possible. This includes splits, re-splits, double down after the split, soft and hard doubling.

After an hour I get stupid – so that’s my limit. Establish your time limit and leave, once you start guessing you have past the time to leave. You will lose the count from time to time, just bet the minimum and wait for a new shoe. Do not drink – you will lose! Don’t play in Nevada – the rules are too bad. Nevada Casinos consider Blackjack tables to be a waste of space that needs to be filled with slots so they make the rules crazy bad! Good luck…

Blackjack - for cost accountants?

I like playing Blackjack – I’ve been playing at this one casino for about 3 years and so far I’m down $2.50.  On the plus side, I bought shares in the company that owns the casino and I’m up $1,030.00, it’s kind of a hedge against the table.

Since I’m both an owner and a customer I’m occasionally conflicted.  For example, I like playing on a $5.00 table - now, I know the casino wants everyone on the $25.00 table so I time my play to early in the afternoon on weekends when they usually have $5.00 tables available.

They’re too smart for me – management always seems to want to wait until each open $5.00 table is filled and lined up before it opens another table.  At the same time they open up $25.00 tables with no players.  Now I’m not a mathematician but it seems to me seven people betting a minimum of $5.00 per hand provides a greater potential return than zero players betting zero dollars at the $25.00 table – maybe I’m wrong but as a shareholder it bothers me that business is just walking out the door.

Peyton Manning can play football too...

Pavel Bure - " The Mother of all Elbows "

Pavel was one of the best pure goal scorers in the history of the NHL and Churla was a goon!! 

Don Cherry was wrong about Churla - Churla figured out that even if he was bigger, Bure, aside from being one of the best players in the NHL, was a whole lot meaner than he was and, he should just get over it...

ALEX RODRIGUEZ - Why I never bet on base-a-ball...

So you want'a to bet football -5...

Remember these rules:

DO avoid the Monday night "double up and catch up" syndrome.  MNF has become very popular and some feel a bet must be made on the game just for the sake of the game.  If the game does not qualify as a bet, don’t bet!

DO take the points.  The NFL is striving for parity, your first consideration - take the points.  The college draft, free agency and a balanced schedule are all intended to serve the Leagues commitment to parity.  Take advantage of that, and always look at taking the points first. 

The last four or five games of any season tend to differ from the earlier part of the season.  Here's why, some teams have nailed down a play-off position and either rest their star players, give them limited game time or adopt plays that will ensure they remain healthy for the playoffs.  Other teams may be in the hunt for next year's number one draft pick and some coaches and players are playing for next year's contract.  In other words, things may not be what they appear to be and all teams may not be playing "true to form."  Be careful...

DO adopt a strict money management system.  This point cannot be overemphasized.  You absolutely must know how much money you plan to bet this season before the season starts.  There are 20 weeks of football, how much will you bet each week? 

When you decide to bet start with a fixed amount, say $1,000.00 and bet 10% or $100.00 on the pick of the week.  If you win, next week bet 10% of your new total, $110.00.  If you lose still bet 10% of your total, this time - $90.00.  This way you maximize your winning streaks and minimize your losing streaks.  Furthermore you will NEVER lose all your money because you never bet more than 10% of your stake!  If there are two teams you like, split your bet - don’t add to it.

DO NOT adopt a favorite team.  Bettors CAN bet against the home team.  Some handicappers specialize in one team, often their home team and bet only on divisional games.  Betting this way reduces the number of teams they must follow and handicap and they do not hesitate to bet against the home team. 

DO NOT become excessively influenced by home field advantage. Both teams play on the same field at the same time in the same conditions. 

DO NOT  bet on the first 3 weeks of the season.  This is your first test.  It is not possible to handicap the first weeks of the season using data that is nearly 1 year old and which might not even reflect the current make up of the teams. 

DO NOT bet on 3 or 4 games per week, never more.  It will take your complete attention to analyze 8 teams’ last 3 to 4 games.

DO NO: bet parlays, period!! Here's why...

 

Bet	Odds	Payout
Single Game	1 to 1	1.0 for 1
Two Games	4 to 1	2.5 for 1
Three Games	8 to 1	6.0 for 1
Four Games	16 to 1	12.0 for 1
Five Games	32 to 1	24.0 for 1

Assuming the “Line” makes each game a consensus 50 - 50 proposition then the odds on winning a three way parlay are: ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/8 or 8 to 1 but the payoff is only 6 for 1, the odds are much more in your favour if you make three separate bets.

At least on a single bet you get a fair return on your money. If you insist on betting parlays there are two things to remember.  First, bet an amount equal to the amount of the parlay on each team in the parlay.  For example, on a three way parlay bet $100.00 on each team in the parlay for a total of $300.00 plus bet $100.00 on the parlay itself for a total bet of $400.00.  If you win two games, you breakeven.

Second, learn to cover off.  Assume you have won two games in a three way parlay and you have employed the betting system described above. Then you have bet $400.00 and you have won two games or $200.00.  If you win the third game you will win $100.00 on the single and $600.00 on the parlay.  If you lose the third game you will lose $100.00 on the game and $100.00 on the parlay.  So, depending on the outcome of the third game of the parlay you will be up $900.00 or even.

Protect yourself and cover off the parlay. Bet $450.00 on the opposing team in game three, i.e. if your original parlay included the Rams + 6 against the 49'ers, bet the $450.00 on the '49'ers.

If you win the parlay, you win $900.00 less the $450.00, if you lose the parlay, you win $450.00 on the cover off.  You can vary this bet but you MUST always cover off you original bet and take a profit.  The 10% commission has not been included for the purposes of this illustration.

DO NOT bet the car payment, the rent, or the groceries; otherwise you will end up hoofing, homeless and hungry.  Betting is a business... 

ARIZONA CARDINALS!!!

Fabulous Game!!! – this was the best Super Bowl game of all time. 

I took the points and I also picked the Cardinals outright.  I lost that last bet but I’ve made more money on the Cardinals in the last 4 weeks than I made all season – I love that team!

The Cards should have won this game except for two very dumb mistakes, first, ALWAYS take the ball – Coach Whisenhunt, are you brain dead - never give the ball to your opponent to start the game, never, just don’t do it again.  Maybe you thought the Ben Roethlisberger might be “nervous” – I can’t imagine why you would think that, I mean he did win a Super Bowl.  That was just a stupid decision and cost the team 3 points.  I mean think about it, if you thought he might be nervous at the beginning of the game how nervous would be if the Cards had kept the ball and scored.  

Second, it is physically impossible for a linebacker to run through the entire Cardinals team for a 100 yard return – maybe a defensive back but not a linebacker that was unforgivable.

Without those two blinding errors the final score would have been Cardinals 23, Steelers 17…

Super Bowl XLIII...

Click to Expand...

The Cardinals have to be the pick to WIN the game outright, they are clearly superior to the Steelers offensively...

Super Bowl Story…

Big football fan finally scrapes up enough money to go to his team’s first playoff game.  Unfortunately, he could only afford a seat way up in the nosebleed section.

Just as the game began he noticed an empty seat way down on the 50 yard line – he assumed the lucky ticket holder would show up any minute.  By the mid point of the first quarter the seat was still empty so he decided to take a chance and sit in the seat – it would certainly be a lot better than his seat.

He noticed a middle aged man sitting beside the empty seat and, asked him, “Is this seat vacant?”  The man said yes so he sat down.

At the end of the first quarter he commented to the man that these were really great seats and the man said, “Yes, my wife and I had these seats for nearly 20 years – we never missed a game.”  The fan asked him why his wife wasn’t at the game and he said his wife had died.

“Oh my God, I’m sorry to hear that – but wasn’t there some friend or relative who would have liked to see the game?”

The guy said, “Oh sure, but they are all at the funeral…”

So you want'a bet football - 4...

See previous comments...

How do BOOKIES operate?

Their objective is to simply balance the "book."  From the neighbourhood bookie to the big Vegas Casinos the goal is to “…make it on the juice”, the 10% commission charged on losing bets (the casino’s make you pay up from).  Assume the bookie has no money and his handle (the total amount bet on all games) is $100,000.  First, he must collect $50,000 plus a 10% commission or the “juice” from the losers then he must pay off the winners by giving them back the money they bet, $50,000, plus the money they won, $50,000.  He keeps the $5,000 commission.  The commission is 5% of the handle or 10% of the losers’ bets and so long as the bookie balances out each game he automatically wins.  A good bookie simply does not care if you win or lose so long as you keep playing – most are happy to payoff because it is good for business.

The Vegas sportsbooks book all bets in-house.  Since bookies do not want to turn away any bets and the potential “juice” they often find themselves “uncovered” or naked near game time.  To protect themselves they in turn place bets with larger bookies.  One can imagine where this ultimately ends.

Oh No, not again...

New York Giant’s receiver Taye Biddle is recovering from gunshot wounds to his hand and leg after being shot while visiting family in his hometown.

Decatur police said in a statement Thursday that Biddle was shot outside a residence and was treated and released from a hospital. Police said there was no evidence Biddle caused or provoked the shooting.

Biddle was promoted from the Giants' practice squad after receiver Plaxico Burress was suspended for a game in September.

This just ain't right...

 

So you want'a bet football - 3...

See previous comments...

What is the “LINE” and who sets it?

The "LINE", “ODDS” or “SPREAD” is intended to attract an equal amount of money to both sides of the wager.  The “Line” is set in Las Vegas by the big sportsbooks, which develop the line in consultation with their in-house and contracted sports consultants.  The line is then offered to a few big time gamblers and is negotiated to a point where the casinos and the gamblers are satisfied then the “Line” is fair to both sides.  Once established, it is published in most daily papers across the country.

The “Line” becomes a broad consensus estimate of the number of points by which one team is expected to beat the other.  By placing a bet, each bettor is implicitly validating the fairness of the “Line”, implying each game is a 50 – 50 proposition.

However, the “Line” is effected by a number of other considerations unrelated to the team's on field performance, such as: how well the team did last year, for example previous Super Bowl champions are often over bet early in the season and larger population centers such as New York and Chicago have a correspondingly larger pool of bettors supporting the home team.

The line must also be balanced to compensate for irrational reliance on random and historical events some dating back years, such as: "Take all the dogs at home on a rug" and "If you play on Sunday, you lose on Monday" and other nonsense which have no place in the mind of a responsible bettor.  Some teams are consistently good and some teams are consistently bad over many years, but any data older then 3-4 weeks should be considered worthless.

Cont...

Charles Barkley...

I haven't heard - is Sir Charles still planning to run for Governor of Alabama in 2014?  

Cheers or no Cheers...

How come Pittsburgh doesn't have cheerleaders?

So you want'a bet football - 2...

See previous comments...

Still interested?  First, everyone in this business is not a crook but all the crooks are in this business, please remember that.  Let me tell you about an old scam which is still being run today.  A couple of bad guys buy or steal a list of gamblers from some other bad guys, gambling magazines, casinos or Internet gambling sites.  For the sake of simple mathematics, let’s say the list contains the names, phone numbers and email addresses of 1024 “marks.”

At the beginning of the football season the bad guys begin contacting the marks.  The story usually goes like this, “Hi, my name is Joe, and I have studied football all my life.  I used to be a degenerate gambler, I lost my car and my house betting on football games.  My wife threatened to take our kids and leave me if I didn’t quit.  So I quit there and then and I haven’t gambled since, that was five years ago.  However, I have developed a foolproof handicapping system and while I can’t bet I can sell the system.  Are you interested?”  Now 99.99% of the time the mark just says,  “No – get lost!”  The bad guy says, “I don’t blame you, tell you what I’ll do for you, I’ll give you the winner of the Lions - Bears game for free, OK?”  He tells the mark to bet on the Lions and take the points.  Then he and his crew phone half of the remainder of the list and tell them to bet on the Lions and they phone the other half of the list and tell them to bet on the Bears. 

After week 1 they have 512 winners and they get back on the phone.  “Hi hope you had a bet on the game...”  Usually they have to deliver 3 winners to really hook the mark and that leaves them with 128 winners out of the 1024 names they started with.  Then they start to charge for the pick, and as the number of winners is halved each week the price increases.  They can make hundreds of thousands of dollars.  For example, at an average charge of $400.00 per pick per week the crooks can make $102,000 and still give away the first three weeks away. 

If you don’t think this works, ask yourself how much would you pay for the 11^th. pick if you had just won 10 in a row.  This scam actually works better if the Super Bowl is the 11^th. and final game.  Think about this before you sign up with another  betting service.

Another variation of this scam goes like this, “Hi, my (brother/father/cousin/boy friend) works for the Bears, we can’t bet or he’ll lose his job if the League finds out but I can sell the info…”  In this variation all games include the Bears and are timed for the end of the season after all you can’t depend on the Bears or any one team to make it to the Super Bowl, that would be too much like work.

OK, well that wasn’t exactly an IQ test, but if you can’t figure out how the bad guys operate, perhaps you should stick to the Slots. 

If on the other hand, you think you have what it takes or, you are going to bet anyway read on.

Cont...

You heard it here first!!

Take Arizona +6.5 - it's a lock...

NFC and AFC Champioships...

Take Arizona +3.5 at home against Philly.  Warner is just a much better QB than McNabb.  Take Pittsburgh -5.5.  Steelers are just tougher than Ravens and they are at home...

Two for Two Ain't Good...

Well next week is another week - I think I like Arizona at home, we'll see...